There’s something happening here…
What’s happening here?
More accurately, what’s happening in New Hampshire?
It’s like the pundits and pollsters can’t believe their eyes and ears. A breathless Terry Neal at The Washington Post reports that – wonder of wonders – Democrats actually care about the coming election!
We stayed away from campaign events and focused on snagging people in bars, restaurants, stores and on the street. We talked to Democrats and independent-leaning Democrats because New Hampshire allows independents to vote in party primaries.What we found, with a few stark exceptions, was a fairly motivated and interested electorate that, contrary to earlier media conventional wisdom, was actually quite pleased with the slate of candidates before them. Also contrary to some earlier reports—including one of my own—we found folks to be very narrowly focused on the issue of electability.
While Neal’s account isn’t without the odd bit of questionable hyperbole (he reports that Democrats have shifted from being willing to “lose fighting” to “compromising” and reports on the swell in Da Leeb’s popularity), it does highlight a shift in opinion. Less than a year ago, most of the mainstream media was trumpeting the demise of the Democratic party, ready to write the party off as weak, inneffectual, and doomed come the next election – and now they’re being forced to stand up and take notice.
And deep within the mainstream media, that’s causing some brains to hurt. They’re struggling to keep up while simulatneously trying to write off the Democratic groundswell as some sort of Lunatic Fringe – a Democrats Gone Wild! video in which Ted Kennedy has a few too many martinis and flashes his boobs at a raucous audience. How could the Democrats have come this far this quickly? Where did all of these Democrats come from?
What really has the pundits in a tizzy is the fact that nobody knows how this is going to turn out. A few months ago, many people were ready to coronate Howard Dean as the Democratic nominee – he was so far ahead of the pack, people wondered if it was worth fighting him. But now in poll after poll, it’s turning out to be too close to call. With the exception of a handful of hangers-on, the Democratic field is tight and running hard.
And I wouldn’t have it any other way.
This is democracy in action – people paying attention to the issues and trying to make the best decision. This isn’t a coronation, this isn’t the party elite handpicking their candidate for the next time around. All of this uncertainty? It’s not a lack of direction – it’s a sign of strength. We’re wittling down the field, as we’re supposed to. Frankly, I think it speaks volumes on the vitality of the Democratic party that candidates are having to scratch and claw for votes at a time when we’re usually able to go ahead and crown the Democratic nominee.
I have to say honestly that I don’t think we would be in this situation today if not for Howard Dean. Love him or hate him, support him or vote against him, you have to admit that Dean has lit a fire underneath the Democratic party. He entered a field full of quiet, withdrawn also-ran wannabe’s with a message of strength and hope. Dean was one of the first candidates to insist that the Democrats could only win the election by actually providing the people with an alternative. He was one of the first candidates to stress the importance of the voters’ power, and one of the first candidates to sound like he believed he could make a difference. And even when Dean went nuts at a rally – he didn’t ruin himself. While the press wants to make Dean’s “Hulkamania” bout sound like a fatal stumbling block, the fact is that people love it. Dean showed passion. He showed strength. And for those who feel it was un-Presidential, look at the clown we have in office now. An occasional pep rally is far less un-Presidential than the way this administration has conducted itself.
Tomorrow’s primary will be very, very interesting. No outcome would shock me – with the exception of a landslide for Joe Lieberman. Frankly, I don’t know what makes Da Leeb think he’s going to swing up in the polls – maybe he thinks he has more “Joementum” than he really has (BTW – Mac over at thegofish thinks we should co-opt the “Joementum” term as a euphemism – a move I wholly endorse).
I would even be less shocked if Dennis Kucinich pulled out the vote – even if his supporters have the worst… responses… ever to complaints that their candidate can’t win (“If Vanessa believes that Dennis has no chance of emerging as the nominee, then a primary vote for Dennis carries no danger of anointing the wrong candidate to face-off against George Bush” – ok, what?).
Al Sharpton? Actually, the man makes more and more sense to me every time I see him speak. It’s a shame he couldn’t win.
Clark? Kerry? Dean? Edwards? That would be a shock to nobody, and – frankly – I can’t think of one that I would be disappointed with.
I’m loving this campaign, and we aren’t even down to the actual nominee yet. I have a good feeling about this election, and part of that feeling is that whatever happens I don’t think the margin will be close enough for Florida to make that much of a difference. Even if Nader’s in bed with the cultists.
Now, go read Thud trying to comprehend the mind of Howie Kurtz.